November 4, 2021 by Dave Armstrong
Also, Two-Thirds of Deaths in the UK from the Delta Variant of COVID-19 Were Among Vaccinated People
Norman Fenton, Professor in Risk Information Management at Queen Mary University of London, and Martin Neil, Professor in Computer Science and Statistics at QMUL, wrote an article entitled, “A comparison of age adjusted all-cause mortality rates in England between vaccinated and unvaccinated” (Probability and Risk, 9-23-21). They stated:
The UK Government’s own data does not support the claims made for vaccine effectiveness/safety.
In a previous post we argued that the most reliable long-term measure of Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness/safety is the age adjusted all-cause mortality rate. If, over a reasonably prolonged period, fewer vaccinated people die, from whatever cause, including Covid-19, than unvaccinated people then we could conclude that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks. We also pointed out that, to avoid the confounding effect of age, it is critical that data for each age category is available, rather than the aggregated data because, clearly, aggregated data might exaggerate vaccine mortality rates if more older people, with shorter expected mortality, are included. The UK roll out of the vaccine was executed in descending age order, from older to younger, . . .
The authors summarized (after being questioned) why they focused on “all-cause mortality” as “the most appropriate measure for overall risk-benefit analysis of Covid vaccines”:
• If Covid is as dangerous as claimed – and if the vaccine is as effective as claimed – we should by now have seen many more Covid related deaths among the unvaccinated than the vaccinated (in each age group).
• If the vaccine is as safe as claimed, then there should have been very few more deaths from causes unrelated to Covid among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated (in each age group).
• So, the count of all-cause deaths should be higher among the unvaccinated than the vaccinated (in each age group), confirming that the benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks.
• Counting all-cause deaths completely bypasses the problem of defining what constitutes a ‘Covid case’ or a ‘Covid related death’ (definitions which can be easily manipulated to fit different narratives).
• We define a person as ‘vaccinated’ if they have received at least one dose. As we are not interested in whether a person becomes a ‘Covid case’, any other definition is flawed as it will fail to acknowledge that adverse reactions (including death) from vaccines often occur shortly after vaccination.
• The fact that the US CDC (Centre for Disease Control) and other agencies now counts a person as ‘unvaccinated’ if they die within 14 days of the second dose, or after just one dose, might make some sense if we are interested only in the vaccine’s ability to stop infection. But in the context of death attribution, it is nothing less than fraudulent.
The authors broke down the data (see also the many graphs in the article):
It turns out that, even using this age adjusted mortality rate, the death rate is currently higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.
The age adjusted mortality rates for vaccinated against unvaccinated for weeks 1 to 26 of 2021 are charted below. Overall, the chart shows that, over time, the weighted mortality rate for the vaccinated has steadily increased and by week 16 (23 April 2021), surpassed that for the unvaccinated. . . .
The trends for the different vaccination categories are also concerning. In contrast to the unvaccinated, the mortality rates for the vaccinated have initially increased from very low initial values, but then have increased, whilst that for the unvaccinated has decreased.
If that weren’t bad enough news for those who place virtually all of their confidence and hopes in COVID vaccines, there is even worse news. Journalist Chris Waldburger , in his article, “BOMBSHELL UK data destroys entire premise for vaccine push” (8-21-21), reported:
The UK government just reported the following data, tucked away in their report on variants of concern:
Less than a third of delta variant deaths are in the unvaccinated.
Let me say that another way – two-thirds of Delta deaths in the UK are in the jabbed.
To be specific:
From the 1st of February to the 2nd of August, the UK recorded 742 Delta deaths (yes, the dreaded Delta has not taken that much life).
Out of the 742 deaths, 402 were fully vaccinated [54%]. 79 had received one shot [10.65%, or 64.65% of all who have had any shots]. Only 253 [34%] were unvaccinated.
The report is here. . . .
402 deaths out of 47 008 cases in vaccinated [0.86%]; 253 deaths out of 151 054 cases [0.17%, or five times less] in unvaccinated. If you get covid having been vaccinated, according to this data, you are much more likely to die than if you were not vaccinated!
Obviously some allowance must be made for more elderly people being vaccinated, but not enough to change the bottom line: this vaccine is not nearly as effective as advertised. . . .
The powers that be will not admit there is something terribly wrong. They will not acknowledge the clear science that people with natural immunity, and the young and healthy, do not need to take the risks of these injections.
I want to make it clear: I have never advised anyone (in the many articles I’ve written on the topic) not to get a vaccine (nor am I some conspiratorial opponent). Their personal decisions are none of my business (nor are mine, theirs). I don’t judge them, and ask for the same consideration in return. If someone is elderly or (especially) if they have existing serious conditions, I would be the first person to positively recommend that they get a vaccination (though with full knowledge of all the risks and best available information). I fully agree with what Chris Waldburger wrote:
I make no advice to anybody about taking the vaccine or not. I may well have decided to take it if I were in a risk category, or if I knew I did not have to wear a mask or get tested after taking a single shot. Your decision should be guided by consulting with a doctor, informed consent, and your own conscience.
For anyone who is interested, and who has refrained from judging and condemning me out of hand as one of the “deplorable unvaxxed” and supposedly “anti-science”, here are my eight purely medical / statistical reasons for remaining unvaccinated:
1) my holistic philosophy of medicine (which is not anti-conventional medicine, but simply wider and more inclusive in scope, and which is, in fact, the view of some 50% or more of physicians today) and health food diet.
2) my own strong innate immunity, as shown by never having received a flu shot and very low incidence of flu, colds, etc., no serious conditions, and having been in the hospital only once in my life for any condition (concussion and sprained wrist, back in 1969).
3) my avoidance of crowds (save for at church and one son’s wedding; and I also work at home) and complete observance of all legally binding requirements (masking, social distancing, washing, quarantines as necessary, etc.), and church requirements (removal of the Mass obligation and masking, etc. at parishes).
4) In light of two cited articles above, the statistical data (from advocates, not critics) suggesting that vaccines are far less effective than we have been told (as most evidently indicated by the constant push for ever more booster shoots), and that the unvaccinated actually have lower overall mortality rates. This vastly lowers the “practical” or “medical” necessity to receive a vaccine. The entire premise underlying vaccines is that they work; that they are effective. If they don’t work very well, or if the personal medical cost is too high (e.g., a long-lasting side effect that is even worse than most cases of COVID, which are flu-like and passing), then it is all the more sensible and rational to refuse them in (medically justified) individual cases.
5) The experimental and novel nature of the COVID vaccines. I am not required to be anyone’s “guinea pig.” And the public has been kept deliberately ignorant of much relevant information that they are entitled to know.
6) The alarming abundance of various serious possible side effects: up to and including far too many deaths from the vaccines (see another article I put up today on that topic).
7) Lack of “societal necessity” insofar as many are vaccinated in the US (59% fully, and 68% at least one dose), — notwithstanding the greatly under-reported shortcomings and myths about same — and most of the rest have (far more effective) natural immunity as a result of having had COVID, leading to herd immunity, thus resulting in lower cases overall, which has been the statistical trend now for two months, according to CDC data, though another spike can always possibly occur.
8) Undeniable statistics show that, overwhelmingly, deaths from COVID are greatly disproportionate among the elderly (over 65) and those with existing serious conditions (and especially people in both categories). Arguably, then, these are the people who need the vaccine, and not most of those who are not in these categories
It’s merely anecdotal, but nevertheless striking, and seemingly in line with the above data, that of the five people who have contracted COVID in my family (niece and her husband) and my wife’s family (mother, sister, and niece), all had been vaccinated. No one I am aware of has gotten it while unvaccinated. In my immediate family (four children, two daughter-in-laws, wife and I), no one has gotten it, and only one has been vaccinated.
Moreover, no one who has had relatively close contact to my wife and I has acquired COVID. We’re not passing it on to anyone else. It’s not our fault — by all indications — that anyone has contracted COVID. And when there was the slightest suspicion we might have gotten it from someone we know, we have tested negative. We’re as socially responsible as anyone else. No amount of mindless, prejudiced, misinformed, hysteria-driven and irrational propaganda against unvaccinated people can change that fact.
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Summary: Recent remarkable data indicate higher overall death rates for the vaccinated (UK), & 5 times higher death rate of vaccinated sufferers of the delta variant of COVID.